New rules in China place limits on daily gaming time for ...

china online gaming regulation

china online gaming regulation - win

Do new regulations regarding online games in China apply also to offline mobile games?

I work for a startup that creates mobile games (Keera Studios).
Our games do not require or use an internet connection at all, they do not store user data.
Recently, the Chinese government has released new requirements that app developers register apps with them, get government approval prior to release, and implement a number of measures to protect minors from gaming addiction. Some include getting real user data, and then protecting minors from "too much gameplay".
Does anyone know if this regulation also applies to fully offline games?
Has anyone gone through the same issue here?
submitted by myroslambda to gamedev [link] [comments]

[Gaming] China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's

[Gaming] China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's submitted by SixtyFours to KotakuInAction [link] [comments]

[Tech] - China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's | REUTERS

[Tech] - China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's | REUTERS submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's

China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's submitted by johnmaysonus to jcm4news [link] [comments]

[Tech] - China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's

[Tech] - China regulator approves 30 imported online video games, including Tencent's submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to REUTERSauto [link] [comments]

Gaming addiction is really an alarming problem among teens! China's regulators plan to curtail the number of online games and discourage play-time, which will make a difference to Chinese game industry.

Gaming addiction is really an alarming problem among teens! China's regulators plan to curtail the number of online games and discourage play-time, which will make a difference to Chinese game industry. submitted by Mobgeek to u/Mobgeek [link] [comments]

[Local] - 36 online games companies fined for breaking regulations | China Daily

[Local] - 36 online games companies fined for breaking regulations | China Daily submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

When a body is found 600 miles away... Extensive two part write up on the bizarre case of Judy Smith (1997). Part 1 of 2.

Hello everyone, for the last few months I have been creating long form write-ups on a variety of unsolved cases. If you are interested in other lengthy write ups you can find them on my profile- https://www.reddit.com/useQuirky-Moto.
Months ago, I was asked to cover the inexplicable case of Judy Smith, a woman who went missing from Philadelphia or perhaps Massachusetts, only for her body to be found in North Carolina months later. The case was famously covered on the show Unsolved Mysteries, and it is strange enough to warrant a long, hard look at the case and a comprehensive timeline. I hope you are able to learn something new about this semi well-known case.
Background
Judy Smith was born Judith Eldridge in Massachusetts in 1946. Right out of high school Judy married for the first time. Her husband and she had been married very shortly when in an attemot to avoid the draft, he fled to Sweden. Judy went in search of her young husband but soon returned to the states empty handed and filed for divorce. Years later, Judy married Charles Bradford a man who worked in the racehorse industry. They had two children together, Craig and Amy, but unfortunately the marriage did not last and soon Judy found herself jobless and raising two children by herself. Rather than fret, Judy got a job and enrolled in nursing school. Judy was known to study in all of her free time and soon became a successful home health care nurse. In 1986 at age 40, Judy was caring for a man who was recovering from throat surgery when she met her patient’s son, a well to do lawyer named Jeffrey Smith. Jeffrey said he was impressed by how Judy cared for his father and asked her on a date. Judy and Jeff had several things in common, both had been divorced single parents who raised children alone, and Jeffrey worked in healthcare as well, except he was a lawyer. The couple both enjoyed going to plays and Celtics basketball games. After seven years together, Jeff and Judy moved in together and three years later the couple married in Nov., 1996.
According to friends and family, Judy was a rather assertive and independent person. She was no stranger to travelling alone. Judy had been to Europe on her own a few times, and when her children were pre-teens, she took them to Europe for a backpacking adventure. Judy also independently traveled to Thailand where she went hiking and visited friends. While Judy wasn’t the epitome of fitness, she was an active person who enjoyed walking, hiking, and sightseeing. She was also known to be a go-getter who once helped an AIDS patient who was having a medical crisis on a plane. So, while Judy was kindhearted and considerate, she wasn’t thought to be naive and was able to take care of herself in a variety of different situations.
The disappearance
Five months into her new marriage on April 9th 1997, Jeffrey prepared to attend a conference in Philadelphia that was taking place from Wednesday April 9th-Friday April 11th at the Double Tree hotel in downtown Philadelphia. Judy decided to accompany her husband to Philadelphia and planned to do some sightseeing in the area. Afterwards, the Smiths were going to New Jersey to spend the weekend with some friends before flying back home.
On April 9th in the morning, Judy accompanied her husband to Logan International Airport to fly to Philadelphia, but discovered at the gate that she could not board as she did not have her photo ID. Judy encouraged Jeffrey to take the 1:30 pm flight and assured him that she would take a flight later that day and meet him in Philadelphia. According to relatives, the Smiths took public transport to the airport and Judy apparently took the bus back home and retrieved her ID. Jeffrey flew to the conference while Judy returned home and booked a flight for later that day. Judy boarded a 7:30 pm flight and arrived at the hotel in Philadelphia at approximately 9:30 pm.
Once at the hotel, the couple purchased some snacks and went to bed. The next morning Jeffrey awoke and ate breakfast at the complimentary buffet downstairs while his wife was still asleep. When he returned to the room Judy was in the shower. The two talked about several things, and Judy explained that she planned on taking the PHLASH bus in order to see the famous sights such as the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall. The Smiths planned on meeting up at the hotel in the evening to attend the conference’s 6 pm cocktail party together. With that squared away, Jeffrey attended the conference. Sometime in between 9 and 10 am a hotel concierge recalled seeing a woman matching Judy’s description ask how to get to the PHLASH bus stop. The woman was in her 50s, with shortish hair, wearing a dark colored coat, blue jeans, and white tennis shoes, carrying a bright red backpack. (Picture of the Judy wearing the backpack here).
At approximately 5:30 pm Jeffrey who was done with the day’s sessions returned to the hotel room expecting to find Judy waiting for him. Judy wasn’t there, so Jeffrey attended the cocktail hour in the hopes his wife was already visiting at the party, but she wasn’t there either. For the next 45 minutes, Jeffrey floated between the room and the party hoping to find Judy. At approximately 6:15 pm Jeffrey told the concierges that his wife had not returned from sightseeing and the hotel staff began calling local hospitals. At 6:30 pm, Jeffrey hopped in a taxi and instructed the driver to take the PHLASH bus route slowly so he could look for his wife. In one interview Jeffrey recalled that he made the driver go so slow it angered those stuck behind him. After a few hours without any sign of Judy, Smith called the police to report his wife missing. Shockingly, the PPD told Jeffrey that he couldn’t file a report until it had been twenty-four hours since the last final sighting of Judy. After lodging some complaints with some high-ranking officials within the city, a missing person’s report was taken for Judy Smith on the morning of April 11th, 1997 (Lewis, 1997).
Jeffrey called his step children and asked them to check the house in case Judy had gone home, and he also asked that they would check the answering machine, but there were no messages of note and the house was empty.
A check of the hotel room showed that Judy had left with her signature red backpack, her wallet, the jewelry she normally wore including a diamond engagement band and a simple silver wedding ring, and the clothes on her back. Jeffrey estimated that she had approximately $200 dollars with her at the time.
According to later interviews with Philadelphia investigators, Judy, or someone with her name did in fact buy a USair ticket on the 7:30 pm flight into Philadelphia. Her ticket was used to make the flight and her seat was occupied on the flight into Philadelphia (Justiceforjudy.org). At the time of the Smiths’ trip, regulations that required photo identification to board a plane had only been in effect for 18 months and Judy had flown only one other time during that time frame. Additionally, police have a luggage tag from Judy’s suitcase that showed that she took the 7:30 pm flight, and that her bag did not travel to Philadelphia with Jeffrey earlier in the day (AP, Oct 4th, 1997).
Sightings
As news of Judy’s disappearance spread, many people called the police station to report various sightings of Judy.
One PHLASH driver remembered picking up Judy in the early afternoon at Front and South streets, a stop near the Double Tree.
There was also a reported sighting of Judy entering the Greyhound bus station at 11th and Filbert sometime in the early afternoon. This station is a common place for tourists to use the bathroom and is only a 10-minute walk to the DoubleTree hotel. One report claims Judy was seen entering and then exiting the station but most reports mention only entering the station. This area was close to Philadelphia’s Chinatown and Jeffrey speculated that Judy may have gone to Chinatown for lunch as she loved both Chinese and Thai food, but no restaurant owners remembered seeing Judy that day.
There was yet another sighting of a woman who looked like Judy at around 3 pm near the hotel; witnesses claimed this woman seemed disoriented.
A number of sightings were reported over the next few days in the waterfront area of the city called Penn’s Landing. A variety of people claimed to have seen Judy. Some witnesses said she seemed confused or dazed. Judy’s two children, her son in law Jay, and Jeffrey looked into these sightings and discovered that there was a homeless woman in the area who looked strikingly similar to Judy and it is believed that many witnesses saw this woman rather than Judy Smith. This local resident looked so similar to Judy that at one point Judy’s son Craig crossed the street thinking he had discovered his mother, only for it to be the other woman. Police officers and volunteers stopped this woman a number of times as well.
One transient in the area, a man named David, was insistent that he saw Judy, not the other woman, on the night of April 10th in the Penn’s landing area, either resting or sleeping on the bench. He was insistent it was Judy, and not the other woman as he knew the other woman from the neighborhood. Judy’s son believes this story is credible as David was coherent and very willing to be interviewed, even though there was nothing to be gained from his testimony and he was simply happy to help the family. He also identifed Judy from a collection of photos, something many other witnesses were unable to do.
On April 11th an employee at a Macy’s department store in Deptford, New Jersey believed that she interacted with Judy Smith in the morning on that day. She described the clothes Judy wore, right down to the old red backpack. This shopper told the employee, that she was buying some dresses for her daughter but laughed because her daughter often disliked the pieces that she purchased for her. Judy’s family confirmed that this was acurate and affirmed that Judy sometimes shopped at Macy’s. The customer appeared to be slightly disoriented as she asked a young woman in the store to leave with her, thinking that the other customer was her daughter or a someone else she knew. One report says that Judy asked another customer in the store about menopause, a very odd subject to talk about, especially with someone you don’t know in a department store.
This mall complex was in Deptford, New Jersey, a bus ride away from Philadelphia, across the Delaware River. According to newspaper reports, NJ Transit Buses had routes which traveled from downtown Philly to Deptford hourly, and the stop was very close to the mall the sighting took place at, meaning it was possible for Judy to have boarded the bus and ended up in Deptford quite easily. Unfortunately, the Macy’s didn’t have security footage which showed this customer and the woman paid for her purchases in cash.
After a second story ran in the newspaper on April 14th, a variety of other witnesses came forward with stories. The most famous report came from a Society Hill hotel employee who explained that a woman who matched Judy’s description stayed in the hotel from April 13th-15th. The woman appeared to have psychiatric problems and did a variety of strange things during her stay such as touch herself very noticeably in front of the window (it’s unknown if this was in her room or in the lobby), speak in tongues, and finally claimed that “the emperor” would help her pay for her stay at the hotel. This wacky guest was remembered by several employees including the hotel manager, a woman named Abby Gainer, who alerted the police. The strange guest told the employees that she wanted to stay at the hotel for another night but didn’t have the funds to do so. She later said she would get the money via a Western Union wire transfer from “the emperor” (Altman, 1997).
The nearby Best Western Hotel had a similar situation with a similar woman. Concierge Tyrone Taylor remembered that on the 15th, a woman matching this description entered the hotel to use the telephone in the late afternoon. The woman was speaking loudly and said that “the emperor of China” was going to pay for her stay as she did not have the cash to pay for a night at the hotel. Taylor reported that the woman was well dressed and did not appear to be a transient. Both hotel employees reported that the woman was a heavyset blonde in her 50s, wearing heavy dark makeup, eye glasses with tape on the side, and nicer clothes. Gainer reported the woman was sporting an expensive looking scarf with camels and roses on it. The woman, who signed in as "H. K. Rich/Collins," did not have any luggage with her and was wearing very different clothes than Judy was last seen in. When Taylor called the police to report his sighting, he gave the strange guest a call (she must have left a telephone number) and told her she could have a free night at the hotel. She arrived at the Best Western but police decided that the woman was not Judy Smith (Altman, 1997). The hotel sightings were nothing more than a red herring. Over the next few months various sightings were reported but none seemed to pan out. Many of the sightings were believed to be other people who looked like Judy. After all history has shown that false eyewitness sightings are incredibly common in cases of missing persons.
Philadelphia PD’s investigation
Philadelphia PD launched an inquiry into the disappearance of Judy Smith on April 11th, 1997. Jeffrey tried to report Judy as missing in the late evening hours of April 10th, but the police told him to wait 24 hours. Smith, however, was a well-connected man and after a few complaints to both a Pennsylvania state representative and the mayor (both men were attorneys and knew Jeffrey from previous work functions), Jeffrey was able to file a report in the early morning hours of the 11th. The Smith family made and hung flyers in the area. Judy’s children joined the search and followed up on sightings around the tourist areas of Philly. Police interviewed Jeffrey, Judy’s children, and others in order to retrace Judy’s last steps. Judy left behind her passport at her home in Massachusetts meaning she could not have easily left the county. The Smith’s two landline records were checked but nothing out of the ordinary was found.
After interviews and searches of the area, Philadelphia PD announced that they believed Judy had never made it to Pennsylvania at all and speculated that Judy went missing from the Boston area. This speculation was based on a couple of things.
First, investigators did not believe Jeffrey’s story that Judy couldn’t catch the flight due to a lack of photo ID. Police thought that this story was odd and did not believe a seasoned traveler like Judy would forget her license at home before heading to the airport.
Later investigation showed that someone named Judith Smith took a 7:30pm flight into Philadelphia and flight manifest showed that the ticket was used to make the flight that evening, however, the entire incident is still odd to many amateur sleuths and professional investigators.
Another detective thought it was odd that while Judy had clothes and belongings in the hotel room, she didn’t have any cosmetics with her. Further, detectives noticed that there were few soiled items of clothing in the room meaning that if Judy was in Philadelphia on the 10th, she wore the same jeans and coat that she was wearing the night before. Judy’s children reported that this wasn’t uncommon for their mother as she wasn’t a frilly person. They also said that their mother only wore makeup on occasion and not while traveling so these things didn’t seem out of the ordinary to them. (Personally, I have also wondered if Judy did have some makeup, but it was in her backpack at time. I know plenty of women who don’t wear much makeup, but if you looked in their purse or bag you might find some lip stick or powder.)
Investigators went on to say that no one but Jeffrey could place Judy in Philadelphia during this time frame. This announcement resulted in several eyewitnesses who claimed that they had seen Judy at the hotel. One receptionist from the hotel claimed that on April 9th in between 9-10 pm, she saw Judy arrive at the hotel and greet her husband in the lobby. She said that Jeffrey gave Judy flowers and the two appeared to be apologizing to each other. (Jeffrey said this was the case except Judy gave him the flowers). One concierge remembered a woman in her 50s with a coat and old red backpack ask him how to get to the PHLASH bus stop at around 10 am on April 10th. He knew it was after 9 am because that is when his shift started. Finally, a conference goer named Carmen Catazone, who was sitting in the lobby also recalled the flower incident from the night before. The woman did not know Jeffrey personally, but recognized him from the conference. Jeffrey was a moderator for a variety of sessions and was very overweight so he was easily recognizable. These witness’ accounts seem to line up with Jeffrey’s story. As far as I can tell the flower story had not been released to the press at this point.
Finally, Philadelphia PD divulged that Jeffrey wasn’t fully cooperative, as he wouldn’t submit to a polygraph. Jeffrey denies this and said that as a lawyer he knew that polygraphs are fallible. Further, he claims that he was willing to take a lie detector if it was given by an outside agency such as the FBI, but Philadelphia police declined this scenario. These are the four reasons investigators used in order to prop up their theory that Judy wasn’t in Philadelphia at all. Despite witness sightings, this theory is a popular on online to this day.
Aftermath and Discovery
After several weeks Jeffrey returned to the Boston area and tried to resume his normal life. He drastically cut back his hours at the office reporting that he could not focus on his work. Smith attempted to keep his wife’s case in the spotlight doing interviews whenever he could and eventually landing a spot on the show Unsolved Mysteries. On the show, one friend of the couple called the marriage “tenuous” but modern articles on the case mention that the police could find no one who reported concerns like these about the couples’ relationship. In independent interviews Judy’s adult children denied witnessing any warning signs in their mother’s new marriage. Eventually, Jeffrey hired three private investigators to look for Judy. The PIs faxed over 9,000 missing posters to police departments and hospitals all over the country hoping that someone would recognize Judy.
Five months after her disappearance in September 1997, a man and his son were hunting in the Pisgah National Forest near Candler, North Carolina, a short drive from the city of Asheville. On a steep incline one-quarter mile from a picnic area, which itself was a mile from hike from the nearest parking area, the duo found what appeared to be a human bone. They alerted the police who responded to the scene. Over an area approximately 300 feet in diameter, investigators found most of a human skeleton which had been wrapped in a blue blanket and buried in a very shallow grave. Scavenging animals had dug up the skeleton and a few bones had been carried away. The skeleton was determined to be female. The woman was dressed in thermal underwear under her jeans, hiking boots, socks, a t-shirt, a bra and a jacket. Nearby in two different holes, a blue vinyl backpack and a men’s shirt had been buried. The backpack contained some winter clothing and 80 dollars. The shirt contained a pair of $110 Bolle brand sunglasses, as well an additional $87. A paperback mystery novel was also found nearby. She carried no ID. The slope where the body was discovered was near some hiking trails, but the hill itself was steep and at an elevation of 4,000 feet, the search was difficult. The incline was so severe that one investigator crushed his sciatic nerve attempting to search the area, an injury which required major surgery.
Early coverage of the body’s discovery in the Asheville Citizen Times, initially reported that the police found a body belonging to a woman who they believed to be in her 20s dressed in hiking clothes (Ball, 1997). Several days later, the medical examiner assessed the bones and concluded that the skeleton was that of white woman in her 40s or 50s, who was about 5’3” tall with shortish light brown hair. There were cut marks in the woman’s bra and t-shirt which indicated that she had been stabbed in the chest area, however, no cause of death could be determined. Some reports mention that there was trauma to the woman’s ribs. The decedent also had a severely arthritic right knee (some reports say it was her left knee), extensive fillings and dental work in her molars, and some animal hair on her shirt, which may have been horse hair. The woman did not seem to be a transient due to her nice clothes and dental work. The death was ruled a homicide as the woman had been wrapped in a blanket post mortem and buried. The ME determined that the body had been there for 1-2 years prior. For several weeks the skeleton remained nameless in the ME’s office.
On September 9th, a small blurb about the unidentified body ran in an Asheville, North Carolina paper. 65 miles away in Franklin, NC, an ER physician named Parker Davis was looking at missing poster which had been faxed to the hospital he worked at when he noticed that the woman on the poster had a severely arthritic knee. He remembered the story of the skeleton from the paper who had a similar knee problem. On a whim he called the police who were able to get a copy of Judy’s missing poster. After a preliminary check, the ME contacted Jeffrey in order to obtain a copy of Judy’s dental records. The records were a match, and by the end of September 1997, Judy had her name back. Friends and family were also able to identify Judy’s diamond engagement band with a pear-shaped stone and wedding ring which had been found on or near the body. Some early reports say that the woman had no jewelry and that Judy’s wedding ring was missing, but later reports say that it was found near the body. The area of the burial was searched on at least three occasions so it is possible the rings were not found until later. Missing was Judy’s wallet, red backpack, and some jewelry that she typically wore (it’s unclear what jewelry this is referring to). The coat she was last seen wearing was nowhere to be found and the clothes she was dressed in, as well as those in the backpack were unable to be identified by family or friends. The shirt buried nearby was a men’s shirt and was believed to belong to the killer, not Judy. Furthermore, the sunglasses did not appear to be Judy’s as Judy’s kids said she wasn’t the type to spend over $100 on sunglasses. The sunglasses are an athletic style and to me look like men’s or unisex sport sunglasses.
Buncombe County Investigation
Buncombe County Sheriff’s Department took over the case from the PPD after Judy’s identification. Once it was determined that Judy was the woman in the woods, several residents in and around Asheville reported that they had seen Judy or had interacted with her in the April shortly after she was last seen in Philadelphia. For example, one woman thought Judy had stayed at her hotel from April 10th-12th, one woman who worked at a souvenir shop near the Biltmore house (a tourist attraction near Asheville) thought that she spoke to Judy who said she was from Boston and that her husband was a lawyer. Another woman who worked in a store recalled that Judy with her red backpack. She claims that Judy bought a toy truck and approximately $30 worth of sandwiches. There were two other sightings of a person resembling Judy in the area in a gray sedan. One person claimed to have seen Judy near the Pisgah National Forest in a gray sedan chock full of stuff. This witness said that the woman was looking for a place to camp. Another person saw a woman in a gray sedan in the same area. All sightings occurred in the week or so after Judy was last seen in Philadelphia. Of course, it goes without saying that, eyewitness testimony can be unreliable and the human mind is susceptible to suggestion.
North Carolina investigators traveled to Philadelphia to retrace Judy’s steps. They have said that they don’t believe that PPD did a poor job but simply wanted to cover their bases. Two detectives flew to Philadelphia and determined that Judy probably been there at least briefly before traveling to the Pisgah National Forest. They reported that there was no indication that Judy had been abducted or otherwise forced to travel south. It appeared she at least started the journey of her own volition. In all the sightings of Judy in North Carolina, she was alone.
Buncombe county deputies were able to rule out Jeffrey as a suspect rather quickly, although they concede that anything is possible and Jeffrey could be involved however unlikely it seems. Jeffrey was ruled out based on his size and health. Jeffrey was a morbidly obese man who investigators noted began huffing and puffing when walking quickly or climbing stairs. Because of this they did not believe Jeffrey could have disposed of his wife’s body especially in such an inaccessible area of the forest. Furthermore, they could find no evidence that Jeffrey rented a car in Philadelphia adding to the logistical problems with Jeffrey being a suspect. On top of his lack of car, Jeffrey had less than 12 hours to dispose of Judy’s body as he was seen in the lobby of the hotel at 9:30 pm, and then was moderating a session of the conference at 9:30 am. Driving to the Pisgah National Forest from Philadelphia takes approximately nine hours one way meaning he did not have time to kill and dispose of his wife. One podcast on the case mentions that police could find no large withdrawals of money from the Smith’s accounts which could have indicated the hiring of a hit man or a paid accomplice. (I could find no other corroboration of this claim so take this with a grain of salt.) Jeffrey also kept his wife’s case in the spotlight and suffered many hardships in the wake of his wife’s disappearance. Besides the one woman who was interviewed on Unsolved Mysteries, no other friends or family reported that there were issues in marriage that they were aware of.
Philadelphia police also struggled with Jeffrey’s size as carrying and disposing of a dead body is quite taxing and it is doubtful that Jeffrey could have done this on his own. However, they say that Jeffrey is still as suspect as he could have killed his wife in Boston or had an accomplice.
With the most obvious suspect cleared, investigators moved on to other lines of inquiry. They searched the surrounding areas hoping to find people who had seen Judy which is how the discovery of the woman in the gray car was made. Police also searched a nearby horse farm as Judy was known to like horses and had what could have been horse hair on her body, but nothing definitive was found.
Other information
Suspects
Gary Michael Hilton, sometimes called the national park killer, is a suspect in Judy's disappearance. In 2008 Hilton was arrested for a murder in a national forest and was later linked to three other murders, all of which took place between 2005 and 2008. Hilton, who was in his 50s and 60s at the time, killed hikers in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina and he is considered a suspect in many other murders in surrounding states such as Arkansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Hilton, who loved the outdoors, would often stalk hiking trails, camp sites, and other areas known for outdoor recreation to find victims to terrorize. His crimes were tended to be opportunistic and his motive most often was monetary. Hilton held down a series of jobs from 1997 to 2007 but did not work full time. He was also a drifter who moved from place to place. Hilton usually assaulted and robbed his victims of their wallets, atm cards, cash, and valuables. His victims were male and female, young and old. He seemed to prefer victims who were isolated and alone did not try to find a specific type of person otherwise. One thing that is interesting about Hilton as an offender is that it appears that he did not commit any violent crimes before he was 58 or 59 years old. Hilton has a very long rap sheet but most of his crimes were relatively minor such as possession of marijuana, carrying a pistol without a license, soliciting false donations for charity, carrying a police baton, and DUI. Once arrested several violent incidents that Hilton had been a part of came to light but he had never been convicted of them in the past. Most people agree someone with does not start a life of violent crime in their 60s. Many believe the Gary Michael Hilton has more victims then are currently known.
John and Irene Bryant, an eclectic couple in their 80s, were hiking in the Pisgah National Forest in 2007 when they were attacked by Hilton. Hilton killed Irene, and then kidnapped her husband in order to use their ATM cards and withdraw money before killing John as well. Irene's body was left only miles from where Judy's body was found 10 years earlier. This is one of the most convincing pieces of evidence that Hilton may have been involved in Judy's murder as well. However, it is important to note that Judy was not robbed and Hilton did not bury any of his known victims. Judy's murder also took place 10 years before any Hilton's other murders. Some blogs or more unofficial sources on the case mentioned that Hilton was believed to be in Georgia at the time of Judy's disappearance, but this isn't known for sure. If you are interested in learning more about the crimes of Gary Michael Hilton this reddit post is a really good place to start. This post did a good job of putting it all in one place so thank you u/lisagreenhouse.
Another offender who was in the Asheville area at the time of Judy's disappearance was a young man named Lewis Kyle Wilson. In the early 2000s Wilson was arrested after assaulting and robbing a sex worker he had brought home to his property. There's not a lot of information on Wilson online, but he was living in Asheville and would have been 19 at the time of Judy's disappearance. I cannot find any evidence that Wilson actually killed anyone but he does have a history of violence towards women and was in the area at the time so he is sometimes mentioned online as a possible suspect. One sex worker Wilson was known to frequent was the victim of an unsolved homicide that happened in 2006; Wilson is the prime suspect in that crime.
In 2016, only a couple of miles from Judy's burial site in the Pisgah National Forest, a lone hiker in her 60s was attacked, raped, and left tied to a tree. Thankfully, the woman was found alive and taken to the hospital. Some have wondered if this crime was connected to the Judy Smith homicide but there is no hard evidence of this and the rapist remains unknown.
Theories
Amnesia is one possible explanation for Judy’s disappearance. The family believes that Judy was injured or otherwise suffered a bout of dissociative amnesia which caused her to become confused or forget her identity. This is supported by the sightings of a confused or disoriented Judy in Philadelphia. The family believes this explains why Judy traveled to the Pisgah National Forest apparently of her own free will.
One theory is that Judy and Jeffrey had an argument that spurred an angry Judy to leave the area, whether she left from Boston or Philadelphia. After she left the area and traveled south to North Carolina, she met with foul play.
In a similar vein, some believed Judy willingly traveled to North Carolina to meet up with someone, perhaps a friend or a secret boyfriend. The ID incident at the airport was simply a cover so Judy could converse with this person who she wanted to meet. Once in North Carolina she met with foul play perhaps at the hand of the person she went to meet.
One theory Jeffrey explored was that Judy was suffering from mental illness and had a psychotic break. Being a lawyer, Jeffrey was able with some legal maneuvering to obtain all of Judy’s medical records from her adult life, including a physical she had had only months before hand. There was no indication that Judy had ever had any mental health concerns. Neither she or her doctors ever mentioned anything that would have pointed to any mental health problems, even minor ones such as anxiety. According to Jeffrey, Judy’s newest physical reported that Judy was in good mental and physical health (Lewis, 1997 and Trace Evidence Podcast).
Other sleuths have speculated that Judy traveled to North Carolina because she was questioning her sexuality. Asheville at the time was known for having an LGBT community. This theory is pushed forward by one interview on the Unsolved Mysteries segment as Judy’s friend says, “If you are looking for a mystery man, there wasn’t one.” Some have said that this implied that Judy had met a mystery woman, not a man. However, this theory is full of holes. No friends or family ever had any indication that Judy was questioning her sexuality. Judy had been married to men on three occasions and had other boyfriends as well. This explanation fails to explain why this realization would cause Judy to unexpectedly travel hundreds of miles and cease contact with her children. It also fails to explain who killed Judy.
Others have speculated that Judy was tricked into going to North Carolina. Perhaps she met someone while sightseeing who offered her a ride and that person abducted her or drove her to North Carolina for some reason.
Personally, I have always wondered if Judy was suffering from early onset dementia or Alzheimer’s disease. This would be a similar theory to the psychotic break theory; however, I believe this explains why Judy was described as both disoriented and acting normal in different sightings. I am by no means an expert, but if I understand correctly, patients with these conditions can get very confused and agitated but can also have times of acting completely lucid. I think this theory can explain why Judy forgot her license at home before flying, and can also explain her disappearance. I think it is possible Judy got on the wrong bus and ended up first at the Deptford mall and then eventually North Carolina, simply getting more and more lost each day. Of course, this hypothesis does not solve Judy’s murder, it simply gives an explanation for her travels.
A final theory that is prevalent online is the idea that the doe found in Pisgah National Forest was not Judy at all and was instead misidentified. While this is always possible and something I have entertained from time to time, Judy was matched via dental records, her arthritic knee, and her distinct engagement ring with a pear-shaped stone. If the doe was not Judy, then the mystery becomes even stranger, and now includes the identity and murder of yet another woman. While the odds of a similarly aged woman, with a bad knee, similar dental work, and a plain silver wedding band accompanied with a fancy diamond engagement ring, who was not Judy being murdered in the forest is possible, I believe that it is not very likely. Proponents of this theory point to the ME’s report that the doe had been in the forest for over a year, while Judy had been missing only five months at the time of her discovery.
TO BE CONTINUED...
Full list of sources are in part two- https://unsolved.com/gallery/judy-smith/
link to part 2 https://www.reddit.com/UnresolvedMysteries/comments/kky2l2/when_a_body_is_found_600_miles_away_extensive_two/
submitted by Quirky-Motor to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet

EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake
tl;dr
At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
   
+++++++
Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU
Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood.
(My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.)
As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research
+++++++
   
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER
is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors".
I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
   
CEO Jason Ader
has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm)
Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector
His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015.
Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech
The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any)
Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??).
Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
   
Rafi Ashkenazi
One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
   
Joseph Kaminkow
Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
   
Greg Lyss
This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky.
The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
   
Thesis / potential targets
Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider
They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
   
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype.
This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
   
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
   
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.”
“I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
   
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
   
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
   
Potential upside
This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels.
There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
   
Potential Downside
submitted by calcio1 to SPACs [link] [comments]

All "WSB stocks" are being treated the same by the media. They're not the same.

The media has been covering WSB absolutely atrociously. WSB stocks have been rising and falling together for days now, even though they are very different stocks that people are in for very different reasons. This has the potential to create some bargains. I wanted to do a quick rundown for those who are unclear on why. The stocks I'm going to cover are GME, AMC, BB, NOK, and I'll touch on SLV (and why it's not a WSB stock)
GME: The squeezening
GME was trading at $4 a share 6 months ago. People on Wall Street were treating it like it would be the next Blockbuster. The fear was the people would buy their video games online and make the company obsolete. Hedge funds started heavily shorting it, expecting it to go bankrupt within a few years. Even if it was, 138% short interest is insane. They were asking for a squeeze.
Also Gamestop is not that much worse positioned than any other brick and mortar retailer. The pandemic cost them in the short term, but they can survive. Is Macy's going out of business because of online shopping? Maybe eventually, but for now they're trudging along. Gamestop even has some advantages over other retailers, in that they can buy used games for pennies on the dollar and resell them for dimes on the dollar. If you do that with clothes you're a goodwill. In other words: we like the stock
There was really good news concerning vaccination, so the pandemic sell-off started reversing. As the stock price came back to pre-pandemic levels, Ryan Cohen joined the board (previous CEO of Chewy) there was hope for the future trajectory of the company. This absolutely screwed the short sellers, leading to the short squeeze. Gamestop has become a short squeeze play. It's speculative right now. It won't be worth $500 a year from now, and no one believes that. But it also won't be worth $4 a year from now.
AMC: GME's little brother
AMC has a similar story to GME, except less hope. The cinema industry has been decimated by the pandemic, but that doesn't mean that the company is closing imminently. The company became undervalued, and with hope that the pandemic was coming to a close, the price started coming back to pre-pandemic levels. Short sellers got caught with their pants down. They got squoze, and lost a ton of money.
AMC is different that GME in that cinema's were having huge problems even before the pandemic. Also unlike GME, there is no e-business guru joining AMC's board. I think GME has hope long term, whereas I am much more skeptical for AMC. The short squeeze means that the stock will have crazy volatility in the short term, but long term I'm not sure where it ends up.
BB: Not GME
Blackberry is known for making cell phones for boomers, but they have shifted dramatically. At this point, Blackberry is a cybersecurity company:
https://marker.medium.com/how-blackberry-yes-that-blackberry-became-a-cybersecurity-company-efae02912751
BB is also interesting because they are really involved in the cybersecurity of self driving car technology:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-software/blackberry-launches-cybersecurity-software-for-self-driving-cars-idUSKBN1F42LX
And with the solar winds hack, they were listed as a possible beneficiary.
Blackberry has a partnership with Amazon, and has partnerships in China as well. BB is nothing like GME or AMC. It's a medium risk high reward stock that could hit $100 within 5 years or could do nothing.
NOK: Definitely not GME
NOK is similar to BB in that people think of them for their phones, but they... don't do that anymore. NOK is a 5G company now. They have 2 major competitors in Europe, Ericsson and Huawei. Yes, that Huawei. The one that no one trusts because they are probably selling your data to China. It is likely that Huawei gets regulated out of Europe, which is a gift to Nokia. The company has partnerships with T-Mobile and Google:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/nokia-nok-secures-key-deals-145002461.html
Nokia is a low risk medium reward type of stock. It's trading at around $4.50 right now. I would be surprised if it didn't hit $5.50 by EOY. But I would be just as surprised if it hit $9. They look to be giving out a consistent dividend, which might bring some big pension accounts on board.
SLV: Not a WSB stock
I think I saw 1 post on SLV here, and suddenly it is a WSB stock in the media. Someone posts here about SLV every once in a while, talking about silver to gold ratios or some shit. SLV is a scam. SLV does not create value. It's a commodity. Institutional investors are all over it. There's no law that says it has to have some ratio to gold. Literally the first law of the stock market is that past performance does not determine future results.
Notice how SLV is the only stock out of all the "WSB stocks" that is not trending together. GME, BB, NOK, and AMC are wedded to each other even though they are obviously very different. SLV does it's own shit. I really think this SLV thing was just a way for some hedge fund to cover some sneaking shit they were pulling.
ALL THAT SAID
If GME or AMC crashes after the squeeze and that leads all the other "WSB stocks" to crash, BB and NOK present huge opportunities. I personally am going all in on NOK if it goes under $4 a share.
TL;DR: GME and AMC are short term, high risk, high reward short squeeze plays. BB is a longer term, medium risk, high reward play. NOK is a longer term, low risk, medium reward play. FUCK SLV.
submitted by minilip30 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Payoneer: The PayPal-killer of B2B

Payoneer has been silently “defeating” PayPal in the B2B arena (which is potentially a larger market with higher growth opportunity than B2C):
1) EBay in Greater China is exclusively partnering with Payoneer (this is doubly ironical because PayPal used to be part of eBay)
2) Amazon affiliates does not allow PayPal payouts, but accepts Payoneer. (Amazon is the largest online marketplace, top affiliates earn millions in revenue.)
3) Just google or search YouTube “Payoneer vs PayPal”. Majority of the articles say that Payoneer is better (mostly in the B2B/gig economy context).
4) Payoneer may have some customer service issues, but the problem is that PayPal is worse. (Trustpilot rating of 4.4 vs 1.2 for Payoneer vs PayPal.)
5) Payoneer has better coverage in emerging markets and developing countries. For example, PayPal totally does not operate in Pakistan, but Payoneer does. Growth in US, Europe is stagnating while emerging markets have potential for triple digit growth.(Payoneer did in fact experience up to 900% growth in Philippines, Vietnam, etc.)
What Payoneer lacks now is media coverage, and brand awareness. The average person doesn’t hear about Payoneer because it is B2B, only businesses and sellers use it behind the scenes.
Mildly Optimistic case:
Moderate Bull case: - Payoneer expands to B2C and directly competes with PayPal head on, capturing 10% of PayPal’s market share. That would make Payoneer a $30B company at around 5X its current market cap, ie $60-$70 stock price.
Note that the above cases do not even require Payoneer beating PayPal, it just requires Payoneer to be worth 5%-10% of PayPal.
Bear case (quite unlikely imo):
Reference article (old but still relevant): https://www.paymentsjournal.com/executive-spotlight-series-with-scott-galit-from-payonee
Highlights:
How does Payoneer stand out from other fintech companies?
Payoneer is really a pretty unique FinTech company.
•B2B Focus – we focus exclusively on business payments. While B2B payments has much larger volume than consumer payments, it has attracted just a fraction of the attention and the investment of B2C
•Global – we’re a truly global provider and company. We support customers that come from over 200 countries and enable them to transact through us in more than 150 currencies, and settle through more than 170 local clearing systems. We are regulated in the US, Europe and Asia, have offices from Silicon Valley to Tokyo, supporting our customers in more than 70 languages. We’re also really strong in emerging markets, with a lot of momentum in SE Asia, India, Latin America and Eastern Europe.
•Scale – we’re a profitable, well-funded company of more than 600 employees that moves many billions of dollars annually, works with large companies like Amazon, Google and Airbnb, and generates more than $100 million in revenues annually. We have bank relationships and partners all over the world, and have built a robust and redundant global payment infrastructure that ensures our clients get a strong, secure, scalable infrastructure partner they can count on.
•Brand – our brand has become meaningful, and represents economic empowerment for businesses and professionals all over the world, especially in developing markets. We are one of the 2000 most trafficked web sites per Alexa, and we get more than 150,000 applications each month from SMEs that are looking to connect to their trading partners, and get paid in new and better ways for their cross-border sales.
Disclosure: Long FTOC commons
Disclaimer: Not a financial advisor
submitted by ethereum88 to SPACs [link] [comments]

WSE:CDR CD Projekt Red Analysis. Is it undervalued after the 37% drop due to Cyberpunk problems on consoles?

WSE:CDR CD Projekt Red Analysis. Is it undervalued after the 37% drop due to Cyberpunk problems on consoles?
Background
CD PROJEKT S.A. (WSE: CDR) is a Polish video game developer, publisher and distributor based in Warsaw. CD Projekt Red, best known for The Witcher series and the recent release of Cyberpunk 2077.
The CD PROJEKT Group currently conducts operating activities in two key segments: CD PROJEKT RED and GOG.com (originally as Good Old Games).
Hierarchy
https://preview.redd.it/qqj6qs6ier861.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3c94d219f2b9c8cdeebdf289de912b64667642
CD PROJEKT Capital Group is headed by CD PROJEKT S.A. A holding company which has five subsidiaries.
The subsidiaries are:
- GOG sp. z o.o (Similar to Steam, it is a distributor of games).
- CD PROJEKT Inc (Where all the game development happens)
- CD PROJEKT Co. Ltd (Only for selling games in China)
- Spokko sp. z o.o. (The mobile arm of CD projekt red)
- CD PROJEKT RED STORE sp. z o.o. (A new store of merchandise launched by the company)
GOG - Who have just released a 2.0 version called GOG Galaxy which subsequently entered its beta testing phase. The goal of the application is to enable players to integrate all their game shelves into a single library, to communicate with friends and to track their progress regardless of their preferred gaming platforms. Its functionality will span PC and console platforms, extending beyond the GOG.com user base. It's main selling points are that is uses the cloud, is DRM free and has a ton of old games such as Diablo, Destroy all humans etc on it's platform that Steam doesn't.
Steam is the single biggest distributor of digital games for PC, it's been dominating the market for years and has way more games than GOG does due to this. Especially as a lot of publishers do not want to host their games DRM free which GOG requires. It's very difficult to predict the future of GOG because Steam is a private company so we don't have access to it's numbers.
However the big benefit of GOG is that CD Projekt Red can sell and promote it's games directly through their own platform. The benefit being a much bigger margin on each game sold as 100% of the profit goes to CD Projekt red if a game is sold on GOG, whereas on Steam they take a 20% cut for the first $50m revenue of Cyberpunk. One third of all digital PC preorders for Cyberpunk 2077 sales were on GOG which is an incredible achievement by CD Projekt Red considering Steams dominance.
This is probably the reason why CD Projekt Red has such a huge operating margin from 30% to 50% in recent years. They are involved in the entire process of making and selling their games.
GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is the first multiplayer game developed by the CD PROJEKT Group. It has been a hugely successful and highly rated game (which is impressive considering it's their first mobile multiplayer game). The reason why this game is important for the future is because multiplayer is the key to the cash machine which is microtransactions which the card game has.
Cyberpunk was released recently and had been in development for many years. It's sold very well but less than analysts expectations and there has been serious problems on console versions which led to sony removing cyberpunk 2077 from it's PS store for the time being. This caused the companies stock to plummet 37% recently.
I'll get into the numbers at the bottom for my reverse DCF that I did.
Cyberpunk Online multiplayer will definitely come at some point within the next couple of years. The reason being is that after GTA Onlines unbelievable success and constant revenue generation for Take Two then it makes sense to try and replicate this with Cyberpunk. This multiplayer will feature microtransactions and in my opinion is the way Cd Projekt red can really make the big $$ in the future. Microtransactions for cosmetic items like in game skins or packs (like fifa) are easy to implement and have huge operating margins as they take 0 CAPEX and virtually no time to implement due to being some simple code and designs. Here's a quote taken from their 2019 Annual Report for Key Sources Of Revenue:
■ sales carried out through optional microtransactions in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game (incl. kegs and meteorite dust) via GOG, proprietors of console platforms (PlayStation, Xbox) and App Store (Apple)

Timeline of CD Projekt Red's releases
Risks
There are some huge risks with cd projekt red, here are the main ones:
- Neither IP, The Wither or Cyberpunk 2077 is owned by CD Projekt since the two series are based on a series of novels and a tabletop RPG respectively. So they would need permission from these license holders (the creators I think) to be able to do other spin offs for them. While it is likely the permission will be given due to the huge successes it's not a certainty.
- CD Projekt Red relies on a couple of block busters to make 80% of their revenue and earnings. The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077 are the only revenue generates the company has (apart from GOG). If CD Projekt red messes up either of these huge IP's in the future (or like they just have with the console versions of Cyberpunk) then you can expect a huge and sudden stock price drop and potential damage to the company.
- Because of the few but huge releases, CD Projekt Red has very volatile earnings and revenue making it very hard to predict, similar to Take Two Interactive. You can see in the following picture how sales drop a lot after release.
Co-Founders and Board History
https://preview.redd.it/azygu7ujer861.png?width=515&format=png&auto=webp&s=d048b6446dc2ccc0bf4301d609f0baabf3e33eb8
CD PROJEKT has a very long tenure of the management board, all at least 10 years and 3/5 of them 20+ years. Insiders have a significant stake in CD Projekt red's stock, including the joint CEO's. This is great news for shareholders as the insiders have a big incentive to make the company work as they have big stakes in the company.
Company shareholding structure is made up of the following people:
- Marcin Iwinski (Joint CEO & Co-Founder) is 13%
- Michal Kicinski (Ex Joint CEO & Co-Founder) is 11%
- Piotr Nielubowicz (VP, CFO) is 6%
- Adam Kicinski (President & Joint CEO) is 3%
Incentives for management:
Management goals are based 80% on net earnings and 20% on SP over the WIG index.
These are poor goals in my opinion. Net earnings can be enhanced by poor acquisitions and stock price is meaningless and should be ignored in incentives as it can produce short term motivations.
Management hit the majority of their goals for year 2019.Their goals going forward:
Goals for 2020-2025 Aggregate Net Income: 8,300 PLN or 1,660 PLN a year.
Optimistic goals for 2020-2025 Aggregate Net Income: 10,000 PLN or 2,000 PLN a year.
These goals seem too high in my opinion. Especially after their cyberpunk flop on consoles but it's still possible.
Competitors
CD PROJEKT is well known for its biggest sales on The Witcher and Cyberpunk 2077 hype. However, there’s a lot of gaming industries that compete with one another.
Thus comparing its competitors such as Take-Two Interactive, Electronic Arts (EA), Activision Blizzard has more diversified games and games produced more frequently compared to CD PROJEKT RED.
CD Projekt Red's risk in terms of competitors is releasing a big game that clashes with another big game such as GTA 6. However all gaming companies have a good tailwind right now due to COVID restrictions and microtransactions are lifting all gaming companies margins. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Industry
- CAGR 2019-2024 Video games and e-sports growth expected to be 7% (source: PWC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020–2024).
- In 2019 the strongest strong growth was observed in the mobile and console segments. The former grew by 9.7%, reaching 68.2 billion USD, while the latter grew by 7.3%, reaching 45.3billion USD. The PC market reached a volume of 35.3 billion USD, having increased by 2.8%.The largest share of the global videogame market is currently held by mobile devices (46%), 80% of which are smartphone releases. Gaming consoles come in second at 30%, followed by the PC 24%. Mobile devices are projected to retain their top position, with their corresponding market volume increasing by 11.2% annually (on average) over the next three years. According to estimates, the volume of the global mobile game market will reach 93.6 billion USD by 2022 (it currently stands at 68.2 billion USD).

https://preview.redd.it/oqrxpka3fr861.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8237fa9ceafdd2af0bb53de803cf32c2b33c1a9

https://preview.redd.it/kbrcaws4fr861.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1e0055b9bf2b9ea972bd4207bbbfea30ba64db4

https://preview.redd.it/guf612j6fr861.png?width=682&format=png&auto=webp&s=dafd0bec839e23606fd3e778d98aba09adc005a4
You can see from the above as to why CD projekt red is branching out to smartphones and China.
Reverse DCF
I did a reverse DCF to see what the market is pricing in for CD Projekt Red. I did this due to it being very difficult to do a normal DCF on this company as they have volatile earnings and it's unknown how well GOG or cyberpunk will do specifically.
Currency is in ZLT (polish Zloty) and not USD.
Inputs:
Aswath Damoradan DCF Spreadsheet
Revenue growth rate for next year - I chose 470% as this is based roughly on cyberpunks sales in first year based on analyst predictions and my own.
Operating Margin for next year - 36%, I just used a slightly lower operating margin than the previous years because of the steam sales taking 20% cuts and retail sales for cyberpunk.They also own the REDengine which means no cut of 5% to Epic for Unreal Engine.
Compounded annual revenue growth rate - years 2-5 - -3.5% was used because sales dip in the following years. I modelled this after CD Projekt red's consectutive years after Witcher 3 was released. And also Take Two's years after GTA 5 was released.
CD PROJEKT RED usually takes between 2 and 4 years to produce a game.
Annual Report 2019
Compounded annual revenue growth rate - years 6-10 - 21% was used as I believe that CyberPunk Online will provide solid growth for these years along with mobile games microtransactions.
Target pre-tax operating margin in year 10 - 35% was chosen due to my belief that cyberpunks full ownership of it's pipeline, high quality games and microtransactions will provide a significant moat to year 10.
Year of convergence - 2 years was chosen but doesn't matter here as the margins are similar for next year and year 10.
Sales to Capital Ratio - .77 this is slightly higher than the sales to cap ratio for CD Projekt red's previous years.
Effective Tax Rate - 5% was chosen due to:
Having been recognized as a Research and Development Centre, the Company deducted eligible costs calculated as 150% of actual value of certain costs associated with R&D activities in its calculation of base income tax (to which a rate of 19% applies). Moreover, the Company was able to apply a preferential tax rate of 5% to eligible costs related to commercialization of intellectual property under the IP BOX regulation. More specifically, the R&D tax relief applied to past development costs of GWENT: The Witcher Card Game recognized in the current period (in line with the game’s ongoing depreciation), while the IP BOX regulation was applied to revenues generated by The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt along with its expansions (Hearts of Stone and Blood and Wine).
Of particular importance – from the Company’s perspective – was the interpretation stating that videogames, both those currently marketed as well as – with a high degree of probability – those which will be published in the future may be assumed to constitute eligible intellectual property to which the IP BOX regulation applies (subject to requirements related to the necessary documentation and other legal provisions).
I also estimated that the ROIC will stay at 8% (which is higher than the WACC after year 10) due to their big moat.
The above inputs are not solely my own predictions but predictions based on what I think the market expects of CD projekt red (i.e a reverse DCF).
- Employee Options Outstanding: 4m as of 2019 annual report, page 129
I didn't include the above employee options in the DCF as I could not find their maturity or strike prices but it shouldn't make a big difference.
Output:
https://preview.redd.it/ryemr0989r861.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=870ad6cab7b39257d12d1037d6bdb66ef0b7cc62
You will see a yellow box called `Current Year Dev Profit`.
This is due to CD Projekt Red giving 20% of 2020 profits for cyberpunk sales directly to dev's instead of shareholders. I predicted it to be 810m zloty as most game sales are done in the first weeks (Estimated rev: 193+171+104+1848 = 2316) * 0.35 = 810 zlt).
I then took this amount away from the current cash because this money that goes to dev's is not distributable to shareholders.
Conclusion
It's been extremely difficult to project CD Projekt Red and even after doing research I am still very unsure on a bunch of variables. In my opinion the markets assumptions of CD Projekt Red's growth and margins as shown above in the reverse DCF is perfectly acceptable to me. Therefore I would not buy their shares unless they dipped to around 210 zloty~ as I don't think they are undervalued yet. given the risks.
If you liked this post you can follow me on reddit for more :) krisolch.
Or join UndervaluedStonks.
Please comment if you see anything wrong with my valuation. This was a very difficult one for me.
Thanks
submitted by krisolch to UndervaluedStonks [link] [comments]

Sports betting in times of Corona. Here is your ticket to the moon. The next DKNG.

I'm basically quoting u/coinforce here. I discovered this gem, because of him and am already 14% plus since I bought. Thanks mate.
Alright nerds, gather round and listen closely. I've graduated to pennystocks chasing these juicy tendies while serving as an autistic prophet delivering good news to the retards and gambling degenerates in that sub.
"Alright u/Sweet-Zookepergame hurry the fuck up and give us the ticker you pumper"
This ain't a pump.
When I see the next golden ticket, I know when to enter with conviction and realize profits while some of you nerds decide to bag hold XSPA and downvote comments to make yourselves feel better.

Score Media and Gaming Inc. (TSE: SCR) (OTCMKTS: TSCRF)

What the fuck is this?
Score Media and Gaming Inc. empowers millions of sports fans through its digital media and sports betting products. Its media app 'theScore' is one of the most popular in North America, delivering fans highly-personalized live scores, news, stats, and betting information from their favorite teams, leagues, and players. The Company's sports betting app 'theScore Bet' delivers an immersive and holistic mobile sports betting experience and is currently available to place wagers in New Jersey, Color.
Key words for you nerds who can't read and have ADHD: SPORTS BETTING
It's already common knowledge sports betting is already big in the North American market - and will continue to generate tons of revenue as states continue to legalize sports betting. Canada is following suit. Legislations will be passed Q1 2021 and we're soon going to see an influx of CANADIAN online betting. Basically all of Canada uses this app exclusively for sports.
🚀 Let's take a look at DKNG and PENN this year 🚀
🚀 Share prices for these companies have gone up 300% already this year alone, and with more legalization coming through 2021, theScore is just beginning to scratch the surface and will follow suit.
🚀 TIMING: As vaccines begin to be distributed and the economy recovers, states are desperate for revenue and will be looking to ease regulations on sports betting. The more Sport games start promoting and reopening, the more these stocks will gain (especially with March Madness, NBA/NHL playoffs, etc.)
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🚀 Listen - I'm literally handing you a platter of gold here. If you understand this market, the trends and where actual revenues can be generated - then you understand the play here. Canada is UNTAPPED. This thing will pick up steam soon and will graduate from TSX/OTC and can be easily listed on the NASDAQ. Once that happens, Robinhood will have access and the sky is the limit. I'm not here pumping a fucking non-revenue generating, fuelled by hype only, and a company within an industry that I don't fucking understand.
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TLDR: BUY AND GET IN NOW.
Clearly, I'm on Interstellar's Endurance spaceship with TARS and CASE about to enter a wormhole that'll slingshot me into another galaxy... while most of you nerds are fighting to get on wooden sail boats. At the same time, I'm from the future telling Murphy Cooper (you nerds) how to find the tendies.
MURPHY'S LAW: WHATEVER CAN HAPPEN, WILL HAPPEN.
EDIT: FORGOT THESE 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

“TSLA bubble is going to pop”

~ Giga Berlin comes online in middle/fall of this year. Model Y will take 24 months to fully ramp and dominate EV sales by taking the single largest share. This is because the car would be superior in every way including manufacturing (single cast pieces for both front & back), paint (Elon has stated it will be world’s most advance paint shop), range (due to better cells in the structural pack design - something Elon said would render everybody else uncompetitive long-term if they don’t copy Tesla’s design philosophy exactly), expanded Supercharging Network and in-car software. Giga Berlin will be producing cells (world’s most advance) and long-term be world’s biggest cell production plant (250 GW capacity as stated by Elon). The next car that would be produced (2022 year end) is a smaller sized vehicle for the biggest segment in Europe. This will keep ramping up until 2025.
~ Giga Shanghai is going to contribute significantly towards 800k+ yearly guidance. Model Y will be the best selling car in its segment as Model 3 was in 2020. Tesla is building a factory in China to produce 10,000 Superchargers annually to for massive expansion. Companies like VW in China are done. They’re on their way out. Now only Tesla and Chinese automakers would compete. FSD sales are low in China but it will change this year when neural networks will be trained for Chinese roads. The only reason Tesla didn’t heavily focus on China was because they were busy with Autopilot re-write. Model 2 (tentative name given by fans), their upcoming smaller sized vehicle will be designed this year locally in China. They’re looking for Chief Designer right now. This vehicle will be produced next year. So Tesla will dominate the largest EV segment there as well.
~ Latest FSD Beta already shows that Elon managed to somehow make the “quantum shift” he boasted. Level 5 autonomy will be solved this year. Then it’s a matter of increasing reliability, handling corner cases and convincing regulators. It’s a game set match for Tesla. These sons of b’s did it. Eureka. Tesla will be hosting AI Day this year when Elon will be officially announcing world’s most powerful Supercomputer (exaFLOP level as he stated for video training). This will be offered as AWS like service as Elon stated.
~ Giga Austin will be completed by year end or early next year. There’s a lot of mystery around how this plant will operate so let’s just talk fundamentals. I’m sure since Elon talked about it last time, plans have changed. Cybertruck has 800k+ pre orders. They have enough pre-orders for until 2024. Forget about new orders. “But 100 dollars don’t mean anything” - Look into your heart, you want it. Everybody wants it. It’s the final nail in the coffins of Ford and GM. Semi Truck will definitely disrupt trucking. On paper it already beats everything else. Austin will also be producing Tesla’s 4680 cells.
~ Even if stock goes down, funds will see it as opportunity and bring it right back up. No point arguing over P/E. This is not taking into account the Tesla Energy business (that’s rapidly growing every year and Tesla has recently acquired energy production licenses for countries in Europe), stimulus, subsidies and credits.
submitted by xhdt to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why we like Peak Fintech @PEAK_Fintech $PKK $PKKFF @Stockfamgroup

PEAK SYNOPSIS Peak Fintech Group (PKK in Canada, PKKFF in U.S.) - By MrDotto in the Stock Fam Discord group
Upcoming Name Change: Tenet Fintech Group
Industry (Financial Technology Services for Commercial Lending)
Notable Management: Johnson Joseph (C.E.O), Sheldon Inwentash (Board Member, Strategic Advisor)
Why We Love it:
My oh my…..where to begin? (I’ll just drop this and explain near the end: PKK expects to be listed on the NASDAQ by late March, early April. Put a pin in that and we’ll discuss later)
If you have recently joined the Stock Fam community (congratulations!), you may have come across the expression “Holy Grail” used for ThreeD Capital (IDK, IDKFF), and with good reason, as it is the current investment vehicle of legendary Canadian investor, Sheldon Inwentash (See the dedicated IDK board for more info). However, if ThreeD is the “Holy Grail”, Peak Fintech (soon to be Tenet Fintech Group) deserves a moniker of its own. I’d call it the “Crown Jewel” of the Stock Fam community. So, let’s get into why. Get comfortable.
Peak is a Canadian company with the incredibly rare distinction of being a growing player in the Chinese financial marketplace. Through its Asia Synergy subsidiaries, Peak facilitates lending between financial institutions and commercial borrowers. It does this through an online ecosystem that essentially does all the legwork for the banks by both assessing credit risk and also finding matches for lenders and borrowers within that ecosystem. Mr. Joseph himself once compared it, in very loose terms for new investors, to essentially a dating site for lending. Peak does the legwork, sets up the match, and takes a fee (currently in the 2% range of the total size of credit).
Now, after reading this, you’ll have questions, so let’s anticipate that and answer them now. After that, we will talk revenue numbers, and you’ll fall out of your chair and need assistance getting up (we assume no liability for chair accidents.
First, the big question most new investors to Peak have is “Well, is it safe to operate in China? You know, the whole Jack Ma thing…”
To answer this, we need to first understand the lending climate in China. A few years back, it was far too easy for any poorly run “lending centre” to pop up, give out loans with outrageous interest rates, and gouge the SME (Small and Medium sized Enterprises) that were in need of capital. This led to massive default rates and a climate that threatened to stifle commercial growth. The Chinese Government had to do something about it, so they did. Strict regulations came into play, and it laid a wasteland to the shady lenders that had profited from a less-regulated environment.
The result? Only the best, most thoroughly proven companies remained. Peak emerged from this landscape with the trust of major lenders, and perhaps more importantly, local and regional governments. Just in 2020, the company won the exclusive right to bring their Cubeler Lending Hub Ecosystem to financial centers of multiple cities. Who selected them? The government of course!
Afraid of what is happening to Jack Ma’s Alibaba and their financial arm, ANT Group? Not to worry. The government is looking to prevent monopolies from behemoth entities like ANT, which actually provide all the services of a bank! The IPO was postponed until ANT can bring itself up to actual bank-level regulations. Peak does not lend money. Let’s be clear here… PEAK IS NOT A LENDER. They facilitate successful, heavily de-risked lending arrangements between lenders and SME borrowers.
OK, I’ve made you wait long enough. Let’s get to the good stuff. I’ll just roll all out. Please ensure that your chair can withstand the strain.
The revenues for 2020 are, after Q3, already at $26 million. After Q4 the total will certainly be north of $40 million. This does not include nearly all of the following: Deals with massive distributors signing on in Q4. A potential reach of over 340,000 SMEs, well over 50 major lending institutions, 26 major distributors, 19 material suppliers, nearly 250 factories. Go to the DD board for people much better at napkin math than me, but conservative estimates of a $100m revenue stream in 2021 are….well, ridiculously conservative! (Seriously, some PKK board regulars will be upset with me for this low estimate)
Peak has been stress testing their lending hub ecosystem for future agreements with major Chinese online portals like Alibaba (through T-Mall), J.D.COM, and Pinduoduo. In fact, Peak has already released news of an impending agreement with Pinduoduo. Pinduoduo has well over 5.6m online merchants using its platform. There are game changers, and then there are GAME ENDERS. Done, game over. Peak wins. You win.
(Chinese social media influencers as product sellers is a crazy-huge industry in China. Peak has gained a foothold in that too. See our DD section for more info)
Oh, and then there is the fast-tracking of the stock to the NASDAQ (late Q1….yes, this quarter!). The application is to be completed in late January, early February, and the process takes 6-10 weeks. You may have heard how hot Fintech is these days on the NASDAQ? Peak expects to be listed in Hong Kong by mid 2021, too. You think, just maybe, Chinese investors might be interested in this, too?
If you have somehow remained attached to your chair, we can briefly discuss the data. Remember that offensively-low $100m revenue estimate for 2021? That currently does not include data monetization at all. With this volume of customers and access to all of the data gleaned from these transactions, the monetization of the data could DWARF ALL OTHER VERTICALS. The “blue sky” potential here ends far beyond the blue sky. It ends in outer space.
Oh, and Mr. Joseph sees them going to India as soon as late 2021. Yeah, India is pretty big I hear. World domination has a nice ring to it too, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Ok, get back in your chair, if you can. We are nearly done here. The Stock Fam community has well over 1,000 members on the Peak board, many of which can run DD circles around me.
Watch Stock Fam TV livestream videos for full breakdowns of a very special company. See you on the boards!
submitted by cgindecent to StockFamGroup [link] [comments]

Weekly stock market news | Next stocks earnings reports | TSLA , PLTR, DE and more stock news [11-29]

What happened last week in the stock market? What are the next interesting earnings reports? Let’s talk about the stock market!
Hey everyone and Welcome so let’s start with the recap of what has happened in the stock market since Monday.
Monday the DOW rose by more than 1,12% with the broad stock market SP500 also gaining more than half a percent while the NASDAQ was the laggard barely up 0,2% to finish the day while The VIX had another big drop closing at 22.2. About 70% of the companies were gaining while 80% were trading over 50 and 200-day moving averages. The stock market was lead by the energy sector, which saw a major spike of almost 5% with Financials and Industrials also up more than 1% for the day. The rally was pushed mostly by small and mid-cap value stocks while large-cap growth companies were lagging as you can see in this HEAT MAP with the biggest company in the world, Apple, dragging down the sector, down almost 3% for the day. CHART / SECTORS / CHART
Reports also came in on Monday that the PS5 and the new xBox have been sold out the moment they are available in stock, as the two gaming consoles are enjoying great demand, this bolds well for the parent companies Sony and Microsoft especially if they can keep up with the demand for this holiday season including Black Friday, holiday RETAIL SALES are forecasted to rise between 3,6 and 5,2%. XBOX & PS5 NEWS
All this while Europe will start to re-open again after a contraction of the economy due to the latest lockdowns. As they saw the Eurozone PMI falling by almost 4% in October. EUROZONE NEWS
Some good news came from STORE CAPITAL as the rent collections for November remained at 90% with no new tenants requiring deferrals, this suggests that companies are managing to survive even with the current restrictions in place.
We also saw reports that Janet Yellen will be the next Treasury pick as she would become the first person to be at the top of the FED the White House Council of Economic Advisers and the Treasury and she will become the first woman to lead the Treasury. TREASURY NEWS
Moving on, Tuesday we saw the DOW spike more than 1,5%, the SP500 rising 1,6% and the NASDAQ up more than 1,3% in what was a very good day for the stock market with more than 70% of companies advancing and 167 new highs on above average volume. The leaders were once again Energy and Financials, as this 2 sectors, will be two of the fastest benefiting from the end of the pandemic. The rally was continued with value companies leading the way for the 2nd straight day. You can struggle to find red spots in the HEAT MAP from Tuesday but there were a few in healthcare and real estate. This was the first time that the DOW closed over 30k. CHART / SECTORS / CHART
NIKOLA stock tumbled after the recent rally as the GM deal seems less likely every day, as the deadline for the deal is December 3rd.
While October HOME SEARCHES surged over 200% as a Redfin report shows, this leads me to believe that the strong housing demand will keep remaining at this levels for a good period of time.
On Wednesday we saw the stock market take a breather, as the DOW lost 0,6%, the SP500 lost 0,16% while the pandemic plays regained some momentum with the NASDAQ being up almost half a percent before the stock market closed for Thanksgiving.
About 54% of companies were losing ground with below average volume for the day, as Technology and consumer discretionary and staples were the gainers for the day. Value plays did see some normal corrections after the huge gains in the last days as investors were cashing out some money probably before the day off. CHART / SECTORS / CHART
Here is the HEAT MAP from Wednesday as only a couple of companies Like Amazon, Apple, Nvidia and Shopify were gaining, while the energy sector was the biggest laggard.
Also the AAII investor sentiment SURVEY from Wednesday showed that people are getting more bearish or bullish as the neutral feeling fell way below the historical average as bullishness remains very high. This is usually a contrarian indicator, as more bullishness gives me reason to take profits and bearishness to invest in the stock market, though I don’t have the same confidence in this as in the past, as I expect this market rally to last until the end of next year.
News came in from Delta Airlines as pilots approved pay cuts and lower guaranteed hours that could avoid more than 1700 pilots getting cut off. This are great news both for the company and the pilots, as air travel will pick up again in the next years. DELTA NEWS
Also, Deere reported blowout EARNINGS and a beat of more than 1$ per share and a revenue only 0,6% below last year while also issuing strong 2021 forecasts as they see the equipment sales climbing more than 10% compared to 2020 with a strong net income guidance of 3,6 to 4 billion $ compared to the May guidance of 1,6 to 2 billion $. 4Q 2020 / 2021
We closed the week on a short day on Friday as the NASDAQ led the way up 0,93%, the SP500 up 0,24% and the DOW barely up 0,13%. As we saw about 55% of the companies advancing on way below average volume due to the short day of trading with 85% of companies trading below average volumes. Friday was a pretty divided day as Health Care and Tech lead the way while Utilities and Energy saw a slight pullback after the big gains this week. SECTORS / CHART /
Here is the HEAT MAP from Friday as we see that the market was dragged higher by the big tech companies and communication services while the rest of the market was pretty much lagging.
So for the week, the Nasdaq lead the way up 3% and closed at the 45th record of 2020, the SP followed up 2,3% and closed a 26th record of the year with the DOW also rising 2% in this shortened week. While the VIX closed the week just below 21, at the lowest level since February.
So great signs for the recovery of the economy still popped up almost every day, as the stock market is more forward looking than it is a reflection of the current economic conditions. As November will likely be the 7th straight month of job gains, though they will be the fewest in number since the recovery of jobs has begun. NOVEMBER JOBS
Also, Bitcoin has seen its price drop from almost all-time highs at 19,5k down more than 3k before bouncing back to around 17k. The cryptocurrency was due for a correction as it had seen a huge rally in since Labor Day and this correction came as news popped of the Treasury attempting to rush out regulation on crypto-wallets. This would be a big negative factor for people who own Bitcoin not for just it’s value but for using it also. But we will have to wait and see as the Treasury boss will be replaced when the Presidency changes. BITCOIN NEWS / BITCOIN CHART
Some company news from Friday were that PALANTIR saw it’s stock plunge from all time high of 33,5$ to 27,6$ after Citron tweeted that they are shorting the stock with a 20$ price target. This are common tactics that short sellers use in my opinion to get the fast results they expected. Citron also got into a short position on NIO recently and that news also made the stock take a plunged but that has since recovered and even made new all time highs since.
Great news came for sports betting companies like DraftKings and Penn national as Canada seems to be going the same way as the US as legalizing sports betting advances more and more. CANADA NEWS
Also, Tesla has seen a huge spike in the last weeks since the SP500 news, and the stock might see another spike as Musk TWEETED that the full self-driving feature will be released wider in the next weeks as the company finally approaches the end of software development as they collect more and more data. Tesla has surpassed Berkshire and is now the 6th largest company in the US as the stock is up more than 600% year to date making Elon Musk the second richest person in the world behind only Bezos. The company will go into the SP500 index at about 80% of its total market value cap as the index only counts the free-floating shares. I believe we won’t see such a big spike in price when the company will be added to the SP in December, just like it happened with the stock split its more of a buy the news sell the event type of thing. As I expected the stock jumped over the previous all time highs and it might see a little correction when the event actually happens, but in the long run this a company that I will continue to own in my portfolio. TESLA CHART / MUSK WEALTH /
Next week we will have some interesting earnings reports that I expect to beat the estimates from companies like NEXT WEEK EARNINGS
AUTOHOME which is a company that has great potential as it trades at a low P/E, they offer leads and services for auto consumers in China and they have a very wide consumer base to spread to.
With ZOOM also expecting to report on Monday after the close, I recently just sold out of my position in Zoom. I think there is too much positive expectations for the company as it trade at almost 200 times earnings per shares.
Also, Salesforce are expected to announce earnings on Tuesday, as the company saw it’s stock tumble after the news of a possible acquiring of Slack. In the long run that will be a very good play for the company as they have continued to buy more and more companies that allows them to keep growing.
Other companies that are reporting and are very interesting to watch are CrowdStrike and OKTA also on Tuesday with DocuSign , Dollar General, Marvell and Snowflake reporting on Wednesday.
Good news came this Saturday for online retailers as sales jumped more than 20% on Black Friday and are expected to grow between 15 and 35% tomorrow as Cyber Monday may set a new record for online sales. RETAIL EXPECTATIONS
Here are the most important economic data that we are looking for in the next week as it will be a week full of numbers that may impact how the stock market reacts in the near future. Hopefully we will see an improvement in PMI and a decrease in jobless claims and many more improvments. NEXT WEEK ECONOMIC DATA
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion and other thoughts on the stock market!
Have a great and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Phillys Weekly Watchlist 11/22 New format

New format. Higher on the list higher priority in my eyes. Also made everything more uniformed like MACD RSI Support resistance and emoji indicators.
11/22 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times]
⭐ Higher up on list more eye on it⭐
$SPY Predictions: M -, T - or ~, W +, Th +, F ~ or + [~ sideways]
🔑KEY🔑
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This is picking up momenteum/Has reason to pick up][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info]
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$GRIL - ⭐Indoor dinning closures. Nano Float. News makes this fly. This is easily a $5+ Ticker. Daily MACD: 🐮 4hr MACD: Neutral Daily RSI: 64 4hr RSI: 68 Support: $1.70/ $1.78/$1.88 Resistance: $2.10🔥🚀👀💎
$WTRH - ⭐Indoor dinning closures. Daily MACD: 🐮 4hr MACD: 🐮Daily RSI: 58 4hr RSI: 78⚠️ Support: $2.55/$2.85/$3.10/$3.25 Resistance: $3.90/$4.25⚠️🔥🚀👀
$RAVE - ⭐Indoor dinning closures. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD: 🐮Daily RSI: 68 ⚠️4hr RSI: 75⚠️ Support: $0.77/$0.82/$0.86 Resistance: $1/$1.07⚠️🔥🚀👀
$TANH - ⭐Another EV hype stock. $1.65 DIRECT OFFERING. This price is currently a STEAL in my eyes. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD: 🐮 Daily RSI:28 OVERSOLD 4hr RSI: 18 OVERSOLD. Support: $1.15/$1.30 Resistance: $1.48??? Should see a HEAVY Gap Up to: $1.50/$1.70/ $1.85/ $2
$IDEX - Super risky play IMO. Tons of bagholders but they are super behind on the EV PUMP. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD:🐮 Daily RSI:79 ⚠️4hr RSI: 69⚠️ Support: $1/$1.15/ $1.30 Resistance: $1.55⚠️🔥🚀👀
$VTVT - ⭐Huge News about their trial in December. This very well could be a 100-200% runner. Daily MACD: 🐮 4hr MACD:BREACHING 🐮Daily RSI: 61 4hr RSI: 63 Support: $1.67 Resistance: $1.90 Gap Up to: $2.16🔥🚀👀💎
$FCEL - I smell FOMO coming here! EV Battery Pump. Running covered calls on this to go long. Daily MACD: 🐮 Daily RSI: 86⚠️ 4hr RSI: 64⚠️ Support: $3.83/$5 Resistance: $5.80 ⚠️🔥🚀👀💎
$BNTC - ⭐4th Q Big trial news expected. Offering Play $3.10. Daily MACD: 🐮 4hr MACD:🐮 Daily RSI: 42 4hr RSI: 54 Support: $2.72 Resistance: $3 Gap Up to: $3.50/$4.50🔥🚀👀💎
💰Honorable Mentions💰
$RIOT/$MARA - ONLY while bitcoin moves upward
$NBEV/$BBW - Both tickers I ran calls. Expecting some nice upward movements here shortly
$RETO - ⭐200k BLOCK BUY! Reported meeting compliance but keeps pushing back ER which brings fear. Daily MACD: Turning 🐮4hr MACD: 🐮4hr Daily RSI:42 4hr RSI:51 Support: $0.51 Resistance:$0.62 Gap Up to: $.69/$.74/$.78/$.81⁉️
💰Non-Pennys💰
EIGR - ⭐FDA Drug approved AH Friday. I dont think this has had nearly enough attention yet. Daily MACD: 🐻 4hr MACD: BREACING🐮 Daily RSI: 51 4hr RSI: 59 Support: $8.70 /$10 Resistance: $11.50/$12/ $12.50
$LCA - ⭐Merger coming anyday with Golden Nugget Gambling⭐ While in person gambling was banned they still ran due to online. CHACHINNNNNG. Daily MACD:🐮 4hr MACD:🐻 Daily RSI: 59 4hr RSI:41🔥🚀💎
$MP - ⭐SPAC. They provide raw materials for EV. Follow the hype. Daily MACD: 🐮 4hr MACD: 🐮 Daily RSI: 77⚠️4hr RSI: 66 Support: $13.33/$ 14.90 Resistance: ?? ⚠️🔥🚀👀💎
$YSG - ⭐New IPO. China makeup. Revenue is pretty great. This could see $40-$50. MACD/RSI Unknown 🔥🚀👀💎
$BABA - ⭐Severely devalued because Orange man drama. Amazon of CHAAAAANA. When ANT IPO comes out this is gonna gap up to planet Neptune. Not to mention the amount of near term growth on this is INSANE! Daily MACD: BREACHING 🐮 4hr MACD: 🐮 Daily RSI: 44 4hr RSI: 65 ⭐Support: $249/ $253/ $256 Resistance: $272 Gap Up to: $282🔥🚀👀💎
$KIRK - ⭐Dec 3rd PM Earning. Expect a blowout. Wouldnt be surprised to see $15-17 by earnings Daily MACD:🐮 4hr MACD:🐮 Daily RSI:68⚠️ 4hr RSI: 73⚠️ Support:$7.69/$8.47/ $9.53 Resistance: $12.39🔥🚀👀💎
$DKNG - ⭐New PT $100. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD: 🐻 Daily RSI: 60 4hr RSI: 58 Support $41/$43.70 /$46.50 Resistance: $50 🔥🚀👀💎
$SDC - ⭐Earnings beat expectations but where amazing.. Honestly Long term this is super undervalued in my eyes. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD: 🐻Daily RSI: 55 4hr RSI:55 Support:$8.70/$8.90/ $9.20 /$9.40 Resistance: $11.50/ $12🔥🚀👀💎
$CRSR - I personally think this is fair evalution at $45-50. Makes Gaming equipment. Based on their market cap vs Logitech this has a 50% upside. Also massive sponsors on sites like twitch.tv. I'm long on this. Daily MACD:🐮 4hr MACD: 🐮 Daily RSI:86 OVERBOUGHT⚠️ 4hr RSI: 83 ⚠️Support:$24.21/ $26.93 Resistance: RECORD HIGHS 🔥🚀👀💎
$MGM - Honestly, think this is a MASSIVE over reaction play. Expect a gap DOWN. Vegas has good odds of being closed for a few weeks in the near future. Daily MACD: Turning 🐻 4hr GRAVESTONE DOJI⚰ Daily RSI: 62 4hr RSI: 47 Support: $23.24/ $24.33/$25.55[Weak] Resistance: $27.89⚠️💎
$OSTK - Beaten down like a dying dog. This can very easily run up. Daily MACD:🐮 4hr MACD:🐻 Daily RSI: 48 4hr RSI: 70⚠️ Support: $27.23/$41.72/ $50.84 Resistance: $60.32 Gap Up to: $69.04/$78.05/ $85.28🔥🚀👀💎
$CLSK - Sabby, sadly is in this but I do see potential. Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD:🐻4hr GRAVESTONE DOJI⚰ Daily RSI: 56 4hr RSI: 56 Support: $7.12/$7.76/$8.52 Resistance: $11⁉️💎
$FUBO - ⭐Could pull a ROKU and race up to $50+ Daily MACD: 🐮4hr MACD:❓ Daily RSI: 84 OVERBOUGHT⚠️ 4hr RSI: 71⚠️ Support: $13.26/$14.33 Resistance: ❓⚠️🔥🚀💎
$PLUG - ⭐OFFERING PLAY $22.50! Catch the knife for the rerun?If you're going super long buy. Otherwise expect a gap down. Daily MACD: Nuetral Daily RSI: 72 ⚠️4 hr RSI: 62 Support: $16.18/$17.55 /$18.65 /$19.85/$22.01 [Weak] Resistance: $24.65 All time highs!⚠️👀💎
$SWBI - ⭐Earnings Dec 5th. Bolingr Bands squeezing looking for a big movement shortly. stocks should rise on fear of regulations. 4hr MACD: 🐮Daily RSI: 47 4hr RSI: 55 Support: $13.72/$15.23/$15.88 Resistance: $16.69/$17.08/$17.94/ $18.92 Gap Up to: $21.30🔥🚀👀
submitted by Philly19111 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Ant Turning From Windfall to Nightmare for Its Global Investors

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-27/ant-turning-from-windfall-to-nightmare-for-its-global-investors
Full text:
Two months ago, global investors were on the cusp of embracing a windfall from what would have been the world’s largest initial public offering. Now, returns on the hundreds of millions of dollars invested with Ant Group Co. are in jeopardy.
China ordered Ant to reexamine its fintech businesses -- spanning from wealth management to consumer credit lending and insurance -- and return to its roots as a payments service.
While the central bank’s statement on Sunday was short on specifics, it presents a serious threat to the growth and most lucrative operations of billionaire Jack Ma’s online finance empire. Regulators stopped short of asking directly for a breakup of the company, yet stressed it was important Ant “understand the necessity of overhauling its business” and told it to come up with a plan and timetable as soon as possible.
Authorities also berated Ant for sub-par corporate governance, disdain toward regulatory requirements, and engaging in regulatory arbitrage. The central bank said Ant used its dominance to exclude rivals, hurting the interests of its hundreds of millions of consumers.
Ant said in response that it will set up a special team to comply with regulators’ demands. It will maintain business operations for users, vowing not to increase prices for consumers and financial partners, while stepping up risk controls.
The Hangzhou-based firm needs to set up a separate financial holding company to comply with rules and ensure it has sufficient capital, regulators added.
Here are some of the scenarios from investors and analysts on what the restructuring could look like:
Mild
Optimists say regulators are merely re-asserting their right to oversee the country’s financial sector, sending a warning to the internet companies without intentions of drastic change.
Beijing could be trying to make an example out of Ma’s Ant, the largest among a raft of new but pervasive fintech platforms. Past crackdowns of this nature have dealt short-term blows to companies, leaving them mostly unscathed. Social media giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., for instance, became a prominent target of a campaign to combat gaming addiction among children in 2018. While its shares took a hit, they eventually recovered to all-time highs.
Ant’s affiliate, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., similarly regained the confidence of investors after short-run selloffs following accusations by authorities on everything from unfairly squeezing merchants to turning a blind eye to fakes on its e-commerce platform.
“I don’t think regulators are thinking of breaking up Ant, as no fintech company in China has a monopoly status,” said Zhang Kai, an analyst at market research firm Analysys Ltd. “The act is not just targeting Ant but also sending out a warning to other Chinese fintech companies.”
Some see it as an opportunity for Ant. With the industry as a whole facing tougher oversight, Ant has more resources to cope with the challenges as an industry leader, said Zhang.
Bad
A more troubling outcome would be if regulators moved to break up Ant Group. That would complicate the shareholder structure, and hurt the company’s fastest-growing businesses.
Valued at about $315 billion before its initial public offering was halted, Ant corralled investments from the world’s biggest funds. Among them: Warburg Pincus LLC, Carlyle Group Inc., Silver Lake Management LLC, Temasek Holdings Pte and GIC Pte.
The global investors backed the company when it was valued at about $150 billion in its last round of fundraising in 2018. A break-up would make the return on their investments uncertain, with the timeline for an IPO that was due in November now pushed into the distant future.
The government could ask Ant to spin off its more lucrative operations in wealth management, credit lending and insurance, offloading them into a financial holding company that will face tougher scrutiny.
“The emerging reality is China’s regulators are adopting similar regulation toward banks and fintech players,” said Michael Norris, research and strategy manager at Shanghai-based consultancy AgencyChina.
Ant’s payments business alone leaves much less to the imagination. While the service handled $17 trillion of transactions in one year, online payments have largely been loss-making. The two biggest mobile payments operators, Ant and Tencent, have heavily subsidized the businesses, using them as a gateway to win over users. To make money, they leveraged the payments services to cross sell products including wealth management and credit lending.
“Ant’s growth potential will be capped with the focus back onto its payments services,” said Chen Shujin, a Hong Kong-based head of China financial research at Jefferies Financial Group Inc. “On the mainland, the online payments industry is saturated and Ant’s market share pretty much reached its limit.”
Nightmare
The worst case scenario would be for Ant to forgo its money management, credit and insurance businesses, halting its operations in the units that service half a billion people.
Its wealth management business which includes the Yu’ebao platform that sells mutual funds and money market funds, accounted for 15% of revenue.
Credit tech, which includes Ant’s Huabei and Jiebei units, was the biggest revenue driver for the group, contributing 39% of the total in the first six months this year. It made loans to about 500 million people.
That outcome would be underpinned by the idea that China’s leaders have grown frustrated with the swagger of tech billionaires and want to teach them a lesson by killing off their businesses -- even if it means short-term pain for the economy and markets.
China’s private sector has maintained a delicate relationship with the Communist Party for decades, and has only recently been recognized as central to the nation’s future. Many commentators have attributed the recent crackdown on fintech companies to remarks Ma made at a conference in October, when he decried attempts to rein in the burgeoning field as short-sighted and outmoded.
Between them, Alibaba, Ant and Tencent commanded a combined market capitalization of nearly $2 trillion in November, surpassing state-owned behemoths such as Bank of China Ltd. as the country’s most valuable companies.
The trio have invested billions of dollars in hundreds of up-and-coming mobile and internet companies, gaining kingmaker status in the world’s largest smartphone and internet market by users.
“The Communist Party is the end-all and the be-all in China. It controls everything,” said Alex Capri, a Singapore-based research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. “There is nothing that the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t control and anything that does appear to be gyrating out of its orbit in any way is going to get pulled back very quickly,” he said, adding “we can expect to see more of that.”
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